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Southwest Florida Housing Market 2019–2024: A Tale of Two Counties

By Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors®


Introduction


The housing markets of Lee County and Collier County

(Southwest Florida) experienced dramatic swings from 2019 through early 2024. This period saw a stable pre-pandemic market give way to a pandemic-fueled boom, followed by a post-boom cooling. Key metrics –median sale prices, closed sales volume, days on market, and inventory levels– all fluctuated in response to major events: the COVID-19 pandemic, a brief recession,record-low interest rates, a buying frenzy,

Hurricane Ian’s landfall, and the fastest rise in mortgage rates in decades. In this article, we analyze single-family homes, condos, and townhouses in Lee and Collier (using January–April data each year) and compare local trends to national housing benchmarks. Realtors will find a year-by-year breakdown, context for market shifts (from international travel downturns to Fed policy changes), and an outlook with talking points to help educate buyers and sellers.


(Note: All prices are median sale prices. Jan–Apr data each year sourced from local MLS; national trends from NAR/FRED data.)


2019: Pre-Pandemic Baseline – A Balanced Market



In 2019, Southwest Florida’s housing market was relatively balanced. Price growth was modest and inventory was ample. Collier County (Naples area) had a median sale price around $370K in early 2019, notably higher than Lee County (Fort Myers/Cape Coral) at roughly $240K. This gap reflects Collier’s luxury market (Naples) versus Lee’s broader mix. Closed sales in the first four months of 2019 totaled about 3,280 in Collier and 6,103 in Lee (Lee’s larger population drives more transactions). Homes took a while to sell – roughly 2–3 months on market on average. In April 2019, Lee had ~3.3 months’ supply of homes (2019 inventory was near normal levels), while Collier had a somewhat higher ~8–9 months’ supply (more listings relative to sales, partly due to higher price points attracting fewer buyers). Nationally, 2019 was steady: the U.S. median existing-home price hovered in the mid-$200Ks and inventory was near a healthy 4-month supply ​(ycharts.com, ​tradingeconomics.com). Overall, 2019 in SWFL was neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market – conditions were stable with buyers enjoying decent choice and sellers seeing gradual appreciation.


2020: Pandemic Disruption and Rapid Recovery


2020 started strong in Southwest Florida – January and February saw brisk sales and price upticks. That changed abruptly in March, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. By April 2020, statewide lockdowns and travel bans caused a temporary freeze in the market. Closed sales in April plummeted (~818 in Collier, 1,568 in Lee, roughly 20–25% below the prior year’s volume). Surprisingly, prices remained resilient – Collier’s median price in April 2020 was $370K, flat from 2019, while Lee’s ticked up to $253K (perhaps because many sellers pulled listings, keeping supply tight). Realtors witnessed empty streets and empty open houses in spring 2020. Context: In late March 2020, the Fed slashed interest rates to near zero and mortgage rates fell to record lows (around 3.3% by April 2020). This, combined with pent-up demand, set the stage for a remarkable rebound. Indeed, by summer 2020 the market revived as fast as it had paused – remote work and pandemic relocations drove in-migration to Florida, and many Northerners hurried to buy second homes in sunny SWFL once travel restrictions eased. By the end of 2020, prices were climbing and inventory was shrinking. Inventory Levels: April 2020’s months of supply was roughly 9 months in Collier (a temporary spike due to stalled sales) and 3.6 months in Lee – a bit above 2019, but this would soon reverse sharply. Nationally, existing-home sales briefly dropped ~18% in April 2020, but national median price actually rose ~7% YoY (fewer sales of low-end homes skewed prices up) ​ycharts.com. In short, 2020 was a year of two halves – a sudden pandemic shock, then an aggressive recovery fueled by cheap money and new housing priorities.


2021: Housing Boom – Frenzied Demand and Soaring Prices


The housing boom hit full stride in 2021. Southwest Florida saw unprecedented demand in the first quarter of 2021. With 30-year mortgage rates hovering around 2.7–3.0% (an all-time low) and COVID lockdowns in the rear-view, buyers flooded the market​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv. Many were remote workers or retirees accelerating relocation plans; others were investors capitalizing on Florida’s popularity. Prices skyrocketed: Collier’s median price jumped to $470K by April 2021 (a 27% increase from Apr 2020), and Lee’s hit $309K (about 24% YoY growth). These are enormous one-year gains, far outpacing national price growth (~17% YoY nationally in spring 2021​ycharts.com). Closed sales volume also surged – Collier’s Jan–Apr sales (≈6,326) were 81% higher than the same period in 2020, and Lee’s (≈9,423) were up about 46%. Part of that is rebound from 2020’s dip, but even compared to 2019, 2021 sales were markedly higher. Homes began to sell in mere weeks or days. In fact, median days on market in April 2021 fell to 15 days in Lee and ~8 days in Collier, as per MLS data – essentially, homes were “flying off the shelf.” Inventory was depleted to record lows. By April 2021, Collier had only ~1.3 months of supply and Lee under 0.8 months(!) – an extreme seller’s market (for context, a 5–6 month supply is considered balanced).


2022: A Turning Point – Peak Pricing, Low Supply, and Storm Clouds



2022 began with a bang. In the first quarter of 2022, the local market was still roaring. By April 2022, Collier County’s median sale price had leapt to $650,000 – roughly 38% higher than a year prior​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv. Lee County’s median hit $420,500 in April 2022, up ~36% YoY​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv. These were peak prices – Southwest Florida real estate had never been more expensive. Inventory was still exceptionally low (about 2.3 months’ supply in Collier, 0.8 in Lee in April 2022, per MLS data), so sellers remained firmly in control. However, signs of a shift emerged by mid-2022. The Federal Reserve, alarmed by high inflation, began raising interest rates in March 2022 – the first hike of many. Mortgage rates reacted quickly, climbing from ~3% in early 2022 to around 5% by April​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv, and eventually above 6% later in the year. This started to cool buyer demand, especially for financed buyers. Yet through spring 2022, any cooling was subtle – homes still sold quickly (often under a month in Q1). Closed sales Jan–Apr 2022 did drop from 2021’s red-hot level – Collier saw ~4,073 sales (down 36% YoY) and Lee ~7,853 (down ~17% YoY) – but 2021 was an extreme comparison. Relative to pre-pandemic norms, early 2022 sales were still healthy.


The real inflection came in the fall: Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 storm, struck Southwest Florida on September 28, 2022. Lee County was especially hard-hit (Fort Myers Beach and Cape Coral suffered major damage). The hurricane temporarily disrupted closings and knocked some homes off the market (due to storm damage). While our dataset is Jan–Apr, it’s important to note this event because it influenced inventory and sentiment heading into 2023. By the end of 2022, the once-frenzied market was cooling visibly – not crashing, but normalizing. Nationally, by fall 2022 the housing market had flipped from boom to slowdown: U.S. existing-home sales fell from ~6.5 million annualized in January to ~4.0 million by year-end, a near 30% drop, as 30-year mortgage rates hit 20-year highs (~7%) ​ycharts.com. Southwest Florida’s late-2022 slowdown had multiple causes: sticker shock from 2021’s price jump, rising interest rates eroding affordability, and local disruptions from the hurricane. Still, 2022 overall will be remembered as a transition year – from an ultra-hot first half to a much cooler second half. Prices in Collier and Lee by year-end 2022 were flat to slightly below the spring peak (some sellers had to start cutting prices), and inventory was creeping up from record lows. Realtors began to shift messaging: no more “name your price” frenzy – pricing and condition mattered again as buyers became more choosy.


2023: Market Cooldown and Hurricane Recovery




By the first quarter of 2023, the Southwest Florida market had clearly downshifted from the frenzy. Home prices leveled off near their peak, and in Lee County they even pulled back a bit. In April 2023, Lee’s median price (~$405K) was about 4% lower than a year earlier​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv, indicating a mild correction in that county (likely due in part to Hurricane Ian’s impact on some neighborhoods and a higher proportion of mid-priced homes selling). Collier’s median in April 2023 was around $695K, slightly above April 2022, showing that the high-end Naples market held value better (many Collier buyers are cash-rich and less rate-sensitive). Sales volumes in early 2023 were subdued. Collier’s Jan–Apr 2023 sales (~3,151) were about 23% below 2022 and back in line with 2019 levels. Lee’s sales (~6,178) were 21% below 2022. High mortgage rates (which averaged 6–7% in early 2023, more than double 2021 levels) sidelined some buyers, and others shifted to the sidelines waiting for prices or rates to fall. The mix of buyers also changed: with financing costs up, cash buyers (including investors) remained active – nearly 65% of Collier homes and 45% of Lee homes were bought with cash in Q1 2023 (an uptick in Lee’s cash share, possibly as some financed buyers dropped out). Homes stayed on the market longer: by early 2023 the median days on market stretched to ~1–2 months in both counties, a dramatic change from the week-or-two sales of 2021​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv. Inventory rebuild: One of the most striking shifts in 2023 was the rebound in inventory. Sellers who had hesitated (or couldn’t find a move-up home) during the frenzy finally listed, and new construction added supply. By April 2023, Lee County had about 5,900 active listings, up 230% from just 1,793 a year prior (Apr 2022) – a huge increase, though partly inflated by homes that sat on market longer. Collier’s inventory in April 2023 was ~3,309, up 19% from a year earlier. In months’ supply, Collier rose to ~3.5 months and Lee to ~3.3 months of inventory – still technically a seller’s market by national norms, but vastly more balanced than the <1 month supply a year before. Figure 2 below illustrates this trend:


External factors in 2023: Beyond local dynamics, macro trends influenced buyer and seller behavior. The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes continued (the Fed Funds Rate hit its highest level since 2007), keeping mortgage costs elevated. National media was filled with talk of a housing cooldown, which affected buyer psychology. On the other hand, international travel resumed in full – bringing back foreign buyers and snowbirds who had been absent in 2020–21. Indeed, Southwest Florida’s tourism and inbound travel numbers in early 2023 were strong, as evidenced by a rebound in passengers through RSW (Fort Myers International Airport). This helped sustain some housing demand, particularly for vacation condos and second homes in Collier County. Hurricane Ian’s aftermath also played a role: rebuilding efforts were underway in Lee, and some displaced homeowners chose to buy elsewhere temporarily, while some investors swooped in to purchase damaged properties at discounts. These cross-currents kept the market from slumping too far. By end of Q1 2023, realtors observed that well-priced homes would still sell (albeit not overnight), whereas over-priced or poorly conditioned listings might languish without price cuts. The market had shifted from white-hot to lukewarm – neither a boom nor a bust, but a healthy normalization with buyers and sellers finding more equal footing.


2024: Stabilization and a New Normal


Early 2024 data suggests the Southwest Florida market is stabilizing. January–April 2024 saw median prices roughly flat to the prior year in both counties. Collier’s median ($700K in Q1–Q2 2024) is on par with 2023, and Lee’s ($403K) is likewise very close to a year ago. After the slight dip in late 2022–2023, prices have found a floor, supported by continued demand for Florida living and still-limited supply in some segments. Closed sales in Jan–Apr 2024 were comparable to 2023 (Collier ~3,015, Lee ~6,065, virtually unchanged year-over-year), indicating that the market may have hit a stable stride. Inventory, however, has continued to build. By April 2024, Lee County had about 10,090 active listings and Collier about 5,584 (further increases of ~70% in Lee and ~69% in Collier from early 2023). This translates to roughly 5–6 months’ supply in both counties – the highest level of inventory since 2019 and a sign that the market is back in balanced territory. For context, the national inventory in spring 2024 remains around a 3.5-month supply​ycharts.com​ycharts.com (many U.S. markets still have a shortage because sellers with ultra-low mortgage rates are staying put). In SWFL, the higher relative inventory could be due to its unique makeup: many homes are second properties (easier to list for sale), and new development has added options. Buyers in 2024 have more choice and more room for negotiation than at any time in the past five years. Meanwhile, sellers face more competition and must price competitively and stage homes well to attract offers. Homes now take ~6–8 weeks to sell on average (days on market in Collier was ~41 days, Lee ~43 days in April 2024, versus literally single-digit days at the 2021 peak).


Nationally, the housing market in early 2024 is subdued but not crashing – prices are inching up again (the U.S. median existing price hit $406,600 in April 2024, a new record high)​fred.stlouisfed.org, and sales volumes are lower than pre-pandemic norms due to affordability challenges​ycharts.com. Southwest Florida appears to be following a similar path of plateaued prices and moderate activity. One positive sign locally is the return of seasonal residents and foreign buyers, thanks to eased travel restrictions – the international interest provides a floor for demand in areas like Naples, even with domestic buyers tightening budgets. Additionally, regional economic factors (like robust in-migration to Florida and relatively low unemployment) continue to support housing. As 2024 progresses, Realtors are seeing a market that is neither a seller’s market nor a buyer’s market – it’s somewhere in between. Well-priced homes in desirable locations are selling within a month or two (often with just one or two offers instead of a dozen), while overpriced listings will linger. Buyers, for the first time in years, can afford to be patient and selective. Sellers, many of whom locked in gains from the 2020–2022 spike, are generally not under pressure to sell at discounts – thus, prices remain near record highs, but negotiation has returned (list-price to sale-price ratios have eased from 100%+ to more typical 95–97% range according to MLS stats). The mood in early 2024 is one of cautious optimism: despite interest rates around 6.5–7%, the local market is weathering the storm (literally and figuratively) and adjusting to a post-frenzy reality.


Comparative Summary: Lee vs. Collier in Review


Throughout 2019–2024, Lee and Collier counties often moved in sync – both felt the pandemic boom and the correction – but there were some nuances:

  • Price Level & Growth: Collier County’s home prices have always been higher (Naples’ luxury influence). During the boom, Collier’s median price reached over $700K, about $250K above Lee’s. Both counties saw roughly ~70–80% price growth from 2019 to 2022. Lee gave back a little of that (a small dip in 2023), whereas Collier essentially held all its gains. This suggests the high-end market (Collier) was more resilient, bolstered by affluent cash buyers, while Lee’s broader market was slightly more rate-sensitive.

  • Sales Volume: Lee County consistently had roughly double the number of sales as Collier each year (reflecting its larger population and more middle-class housing stock). Both counties hit peak sales in 2021 (Lee approx. 9,400 Jan–Apr, Collier ~6,300). Both then saw sales decline ~20–30% by 2023 as the market cooled. The volatility was higher in Collier’s percentage change, partly because Collier had a deeper pandemic dip and an explosive rebound (e.g., Collier’s sales jumped 80% in Q1 2021 YoY, vs 46% in Lee). By 2023–2024, volumes in both counties normalized near 2019 levels.

  • Inventory & Speed: Lee County started with a tighter market in 2019 (3–4 months’ supply) compared to Collier’s more plentiful supply (~8 months in 2019). During the frenzy of 2021–2022, Lee’s inventory dropped below 1 month – homes in Lee were selling incredibly fast. Collier’s inventory also dropped, but never quite as low in absolute terms (~1–2 months at worst). Post-frenzy, inventory in both rebounded, but by 2024 Collier actually has a tad more months’ supply (~5.6 months) than Lee (~5.4) – meaning Collier’s market today is slightly looser. This could be due to more new listings in Collier as sellers try to cash out high values. Days on market reflected this pattern: Lee’s DOM was a bit lower than Collier’s at peak (some Collier luxury homes still took a little longer even in 2022), but by 2024 both are similar (~6 weeks).

  • Cash Sales & Investors: Collier has a consistently higher share of cash transactions (often 50–60% of sales) given its wealthier buyers. Lee’s cash share was around 40% pre-pandemic, dipped during the frenzy (as more financed first-time buyers jumped in), then rose back to ~45% by 2023. Both counties saw investor activity, but it was more pronounced in certain Lee submarkets (e.g., Cape Coral saw many flipped properties). Collier’s investors tend to be longer-term (buy-and-hold for vacation rental or future retirement).

  • External Impacts: Lee County bore the brunt of Hurricane Ian (2022), which had a short-term slowing effect on its market that Collier largely avoided. Collier, with its international appeal (Naples), was more affected by the drop in foreign tourism in 2020–2021 and benefited more from its return in 2022–2023. Both counties benefited from domestic migration trends (Florida gained residents as remote work became common).

In summary, Lee and Collier generally ride the same waves, but Collier’s higher price point and demographic skew (more second-home owners and cash buyers) made it slightly less volatile in downturns and extremely attractive during the boom. Lee’s greater local workforce housing means interest rate swings and economic shocks can have a bit more impact on activity.


Outlook for 2024 and Beyond – What Realtors Should Watch


Southwest Florida’s housing market seems to be landing softly into a new equilibrium. Barring any new shocks, we expect a steady but slower market in the next year. Here are key talking points and insights Realtors can share with clients:

  • Prices Holding Firm: Home values in Lee and Collier have held near record highs through the market’s cooldown. Unlike the 2008 bust, we haven’t seen major price declines – a testament to strong underlying demand and much healthier lending practices. For sellers, this means your equity gains from the last few years are largely intact. For buyers, waiting for a “crash” has not paid off; prices are more likely to plateau or inch up (especially if interest rates tick down). National forecasts anticipate only modest price changes (+/− a few percent) in the coming year.

  • Interest Rates & Affordability: Mortgage rates are the wildcard. They roughly doubled from 2021 to 2023, drastically impacting affordability. Many buyers had to reduce budgets or pause their search. As of mid-2024, 30-year fixed rates hover around 6.5–7%, the highest in ~15 years. Most economists expect rates to gradually decline over the next 18 months (perhaps settling around 5–6% in 2025) if inflation continues to ease. Realtor Tip: Explain to buyers that while today’s rates are higher, they are still historically average (the 1971–2020 average 30-year rate was ~7.8%). Marry the house, date the rate – buyers can refinance later if rates fall. For now, focus on creative financing (rate buydowns, ARMs, or seller concessions) to bridge the affordability gap. Sellers should understand that many buyers are stretching on payments; pricing your home competitively (and perhaps offering to help buy down a buyer’s rate) can expand your pool of prospects.

  • Inventory & Negotiation: The swelling inventory gives buyers more choices than at any time since 2018. We’ve roughly quadrupled the number of homes on the market from the 2021 trough. This means buyers can be choosier – you may not need to bid on the first home you see, and you might successfully negotiate contingencies (inspection, appraisal) that were often waived during the frenzy. Lowball offers still aren’t prevalent (it’s not a buyer’s market, just a balanced one), but the days of paying $50K over asking with no inspection are gone. Sellers now face competition – making repairs and staging are back in play, and pricing right from the start is critical. Gone are 2021’s instant sales; expect your home to take a month or two to find the right buyer. However, also note that truly well-priced, move-in-ready homes can still sell quickly – there are buyers waiting for “the one.” Realtors should counsel sellers that overpricing will hurt them (as buyers have other options now), whereas pricing at market value can even spur multiple offers if the home shines.

  • Economic and Environmental Factors: Realtors in SWFL should keep an eye on external factors. Hurricane season is a reality – after Ian, buyers are more conscious of flood zones and build quality. Emphasize a home’s storm resiliency or mitigation features (new roof, impact windows) as selling points. Insurance costs have risen in Florida; be prepared to discuss how this affects carrying costs. On the economic front, Southwest Florida remains a magnet for retirees and remote workers – that demographic tailwind is a big plus. Even if the U.S. enters a mild recession in late 2024 (as some predict), Florida real estate may outperform due to that inbound demand. Tourism and travel are fully back, which boosts rental markets and second-home interest. And if the U.S. dollar weakens, expect more Canadian and European buyers to return looking for their piece of paradise. In short, our market’s fundamentals – desirable location, limited land (especially in Collier), and population growth – should support it even through national headwinds.

  • Opportunities in Each County: In Collier County, the ultra-luxury segment (Naples beachfront estates, etc.) is always a world of its own; it’s less affected by rates and more by wealth trends. That market should remain robust, though buyers are more value-conscious now than in the frenzy. In the mid-range (e.g. $500K–$1M single-family homes), Collier buyers can finally catch their breath – inventory has improved in communities like Ave Maria, Golden Gate Estates, and North Naples. Lee County offers relative affordability – even after recent growth, Lee’s median price is ~40% lower than Collier’s. This gap may draw more budget-sensitive buyers to Lee. Plus, reconstruction in Fort Myers Beach and Cape Coral means newly renovated or rebuilt homes will hit the market – effectively raising the quality of inventory. There may be opportunities for investors in Lee’s rehab market and for first-time buyers to find deals on older homes as sellers face competition from new builds. Realtors should stay informed on rebuilding progress and any government incentives for storm-hardened homes.


Bottom Line: The Southwest Florida market from 2019 to 2024 has weathered a hurricane of events – literally and figuratively. We’ve gone from balance, to boom, to a controlled cooldown. Going forward, expect a more predictable, sustainable market. For Realtors, the key is to educate clients that this “new normal” is not a negative – it’s a healthier environment where informed strategy wins. Sellers can still achieve excellent prices, but must be realistic and patient. Buyers have more choice and less stress, but must budget for higher financing costs. Both counties remain exceptionally desirable – the fundamental appeal of warm weather, beaches, and lifestyle hasn’t changed. By understanding the recent rollercoaster and the reasons behind it, we can better guide our clients. After all, Southwest Florida real estate is a long-term story of growth, resilience, and opportunity – and that story is far from over.


Sources:



  • Bonita Springs-Estero MLS, Jan–Apr 2019–2024 Market Statistics (Collier & Lee Counties)


  • Freddie Mac PMMS – 30-Year Mortgage Rate History​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv​file-yrxbnpzp3k46ydfyx5t4pv


  • Florida Realtors® and local news reports (market trends and Hurricane Ian impacts)

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