Florida has become a magnet for Americans seeking warmer weather, lifestyle flexibility, and new opportunities. Here's a data-driven look at who's moving to Florida, where they're coming from, and what it means for Southwest Florida real estate.
Southwest Florida: Lee, Collier & Hendry Counties (2025 Data)
For Southwest Florida, the migration story is especially compelling. Using the latest 2025 driver's license exchange data from Lee County, Collier County, and Hendry County, we can see exactly where our newest neighbors are coming from — and how dramatically the patterns have shifted since the pre-pandemic era.
🌴 Lee County — Top Origin States (2025)
🏝️ Collier County — Top Origin States (2025)
Lee County: Who's Moving to Bonita Springs, Estero & Fort Myers
Lee County — home to Bonita Springs, Estero, Fort Myers, and Cape Coral — welcomed over 21,000 new residents in 2025 who exchanged out-of-state licenses. The top sources mirror statewide trends but with notable Midwest strength:
| Rank | Origin State | 2025 Arrivals | 2016-2019 Avg. | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York | 2,543 | 1,835 | +39% |
| 2 | Illinois | 1,824 | 1,401 | +30% |
| 3 | New Jersey | 1,312 | 1,005 | +31% |
| 4 | Ohio | 1,156 | 1,060 | +9% |
| 5 | Pennsylvania | 1,153 | 1,020 | +13% |
| 6 | Michigan | 1,003 | 894 | +12% |
| 7 | Massachusetts | 735 | 488 | +51% |
| 8 | Indiana | 724 | 592 | +22% |
| 9 | Texas | 703 | 500 | +41% |
| 10 | California | 656 | 349 | +88% |
Collier County: Who's Moving to Naples & Marco Island
Collier County — including Naples, Marco Island, and surrounding communities — saw over 13,000 license exchanges in 2025. International arrivals play a bigger role here:
| Rank | Origin | 2025 Arrivals | 2016-2019 Avg. | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US Territory/Foreign | 4,094 | 1,094 | +274% |
| 2 | New York | 1,157 | 1,003 | +15% |
| 3 | Illinois | 965 | 1,018 | -5% |
| 4 | New Jersey | 784 | 883 | -11% |
| 5 | Massachusetts | 744 | 704 | +6% |
| 6 | Ohio | 491 | 618 | -21% |
| 7 | Pennsylvania | 469 | 595 | -21% |
| 8 | Michigan | 434 | 511 | -15% |
| 9 | Texas | 400 | 316 | +26% |
| 10 | California | 374 | 315 | +19% |
📈 International Surge in Collier County
International arrivals to Collier County jumped an extraordinary +274% compared to pre-pandemic averages. This includes residents from Latin America, Europe, and Canada drawn to Naples' luxury market and coastal lifestyle.
Hendry County: Emerging Growth Area
Hendry County — the more rural inland county adjacent to Lee and Collier — saw 523 license exchanges in 2025. While smaller in absolute numbers, the percentage growth is notable:
Hendry's growth reflects spillover from Lee and Collier as buyers seek more affordable land and housing options in Southwest Florida's expanding metro area.
U-Haul Data: The States People Are Leaving
U-Haul's annual Growth Index ranks states by net gain or loss of one-way moving truck customers. Florida has consistently been a top "growth state" — No. 1 in 2019, No. 3 in 2020, and No. 2 in 2025. The states at the bottom of this ranking? They're the "feeder" states sending residents to Florida and other Sun Belt destinations.
🔴 2020 Top Outbound States
- California (#50)
- Illinois (#49)
- New Jersey (#48)
- Massachusetts (#47)
- Maryland (#46)
- Oregon (#45)
- Louisiana (#44)
- Connecticut (#43)
- New York (#42)
- Pennsylvania (#41)
🔴 2025 Top Outbound States
- California (#50)
- Illinois (#49)
- New Jersey (#48)
- New York (#47) ⬆️
- Massachusetts (#46)
- Maryland (#45)
- Pennsylvania (#44)
- Ohio (#43)
- Connecticut (#42)
- Michigan (#41)
International Migration: A Global Draw
Florida's appeal extends far beyond U.S. borders. International arrivals represent a significant portion of Florida's growth, with the state serving as a natural gateway for Latin America and the Caribbean.
🌎 Top International Source Countries
| Rank | Country | Annual New FL Licenses |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇨🇺 Cuba | 20,047 |
| 2 | 🇭🇹 Haiti | 9,097 |
| 3 | 🇨🇴 Colombia | 7,742 |
| 4 | 🇻🇪 Venezuela | 6,895 |
| 5 | 🇳🇮 Nicaragua | 5,181 |
| 6 | 🇧🇷 Brazil | 3,291 |
| 7 | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 2,380 |
| 8 | 🇷🇺 Russia | 2,218 |
| 9 | 🇨🇦 Canada | 1,944 |
| 10 | 🇦🇷 Argentina | 1,738 |
Where in Florida? Top Destination Counties
Not all of Florida benefits equally from this migration wave. Southeast Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach) captures the lion's share, followed by Central Florida's Orange and Hillsborough counties. However, Southwest Florida is increasingly in the spotlight, with Lee County (home to Bonita Springs and Estero) attracting significant numbers.
📍 Top Florida Destination Counties (Annual Inbound)
| Rank | County | Total Inbound (Annual) | From Other States | From Abroad |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami-Dade | 68,493 | 21,573 | 46,920 |
| 2 | Broward | 44,608 | 22,037 | 22,571 |
| 3 | Orange | 38,303 | 24,595 | 13,708 |
| 4 | Hillsborough | 37,577 | 27,744 | 9,833 |
| 5 | Palm Beach | 36,944 | 26,476 | 10,468 |
| 6 | Lee | 25,812 | 21,354 | 4,458 |
| 7 | Pinellas | 22,098 | 19,977 | 2,121 |
| 8 | Duval | 21,714 | 18,117 | 3,597 |
| 9 | Polk | 17,590 | 15,044 | 2,546 |
| 10 | Sarasota | 16,899 | 14,847 | 2,052 |
🌴 Lee County: Southwest Florida's Migration Hub
Lee County (Bonita Springs, Estero, Fort Myers, Cape Coral) ranks #6 statewide with over 25,000 new residents annually. Lee County's growth is overwhelmingly domestic (83%), drawing families and retirees from the Northeast and Midwest seeking a coastal lifestyle and year-round sunshine.
Why the Shift? Lifestyle & Opportunity
The data reveals a clear pattern: Florida's newcomers come largely from densely populated metropolitan areas in the Northeast (NY, NJ, MA), the Midwest (IL, OH, PA), and the West Coast (CA, WA, OR). The reasons have evolved over time:
🌴 2020 Migration Drivers
- Remote work revolution: Employees could work from anywhere
- Space and lifestyle: Florida offered outdoor living and more room
- Year-round climate: Warmer weather attracted families and retirees
- Economic opportunity: Growing job market and business environment
💼 2025 Migration Drivers
- Relative affordability: Housing costs competitive with major metros
- Business growth: Companies expanding in Florida (finance, tech, healthcare)
- Quality of life: Beaches, outdoor recreation, and vibrant communities
- Infrastructure: Growing airports, healthcare, and amenities
This migration pattern has accelerated since 2020 and continues through 2025. U-Haul's data shows states like California, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey consistently sending residents to Florida and other Sun Belt destinations.
What This Means for Southwest Florida Real Estate
For Bonita Springs, Estero, and the broader Southwest Florida market, these migration trends have direct implications:
📈 Sustained Demand Drivers
- 25,000+ new Lee County residents annually creates ongoing housing demand
- Northeast buyers with higher equity often pay cash or purchase above local median prices
- Remote workers and retirees seek single-family homes with outdoor space
- Seasonal residents drive second-home and short-term rental markets
However, the market has also seen inventory normalize in 2024-2025 after the pandemic-era frenzy. Buyers now have more choices, and sellers face increased competition. The best-prepared buyers and sellers are working with local REALTORS® who understand the nuances of micro-markets across Bonita Springs, Estero, Fort Myers, and Naples.
"Understanding micro-markets—from East of I-75 to coastal communities—can make a big difference in pricing strategy and negotiation success. A local REALTOR® knows how to interpret trends that national headlines often miss."
Bottom Line
Florida's population boom is no fluke — it's driven by powerful economic, lifestyle, and policy factors that show no signs of reversing. From 2020 through 2025:
For Southwest Florida specifically, this means continued demand for housing — but with a more balanced market than the 2021-2022 peak. Whether you're buying, selling, or simply tracking the market, understanding where Florida's new residents are coming from can help you make smarter real estate decisions.
For more local news and insights, visit BER News, and explore our Market Reports for the latest data on Bonita Springs and Estero's real estate trends.