By Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors
BONITA SPRINGS, FL – Adam Ruud, 2025 President of the Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors, today issued a public response countering a recent Wall Street Journal article that labeled Cape Coral “the worst housing market in America.” Ruud asserts that the article mischaracterizes the Southwest Florida real estate scene by lacking critical context. Rather than a collapse, current conditions in the region – including Bonita Springs and Estero – represent a post-pandemic normalization after an unprecedented boom, not a catastrophic downturn.
Market Cycles and Post-Pandemic Normalization
In the Bonita Springs and Estero area specifically, the latest data paints a picture of resilience and stability. Buyer demand is still present and adapting to the new normal of interest rates and inventory. Closed sales in Bonita Springs-Estero have kept pace with last year’s activity – through the first half of 2025, total closed transactions are nearly even with 2024’s volume. Notably, the market even showed pockets of growth: for example, condominium and townhome sales in May 2025 increased ~5% year-over-year, indicating certain segments are seeing renewed buyer activity. After a quieter winter, Realtors are observing an uptick in pending contracts and closed deals moving into the summer months, signaling that buyers who sat on the sidelines are re-engaging as conditions normalize.
Meanwhile, home prices in Bonita Springs-Estero remain strong. The median sale price in May 2025 was approximately $525,000, only a 12.5% dip from the all-time high median of last spring. Considering the extraordinary price escalation during the pandemic, a year-over-year adjustment of this magnitude is relatively modest. The current median is still well above pre-2020 levels, underscoring that homeowners have retained the vast majority of their equity gains. In many cases, sellers are achieving prices on par with 2021’s peak values, reflecting a market that is holding value long-term. By contrast, describing this as the “worst market” ignores that today’s prices are comparable to those of late 2021 – hardly a fire sale scenario.
To put the local market snapshot in perspective, below are key Bonita Springs-Estero housing metrics for May 2025 compared to a year prior:
As the table shows, sales levels and pricing in our area have only adjusted moderately from the overheated conditions of a year ago. Median prices are down slightly from the 2024 levels, but this is a measured correction after unprecedented gains. Importantly, buyers remain engaged – homes are still selling in roughly 50 days on median, and most sellers are achieving about 96–97% of their asking price when they close a deal (only a few points below the full list price). This sale-to-list ratio demonstrates that well-priced properties continue to attract serious buyers willing to pay close to listing prices. Nearly nine in ten recent sales have closed at or below the original asking price, which reflects necessary pricing adjustments in some cases, but overall pricing is realistic and supported by the market. In short, homes are not languishing unloved or being sold at deep discounts – they are selling at strong prices, just with a bit more negotiation and patience than during the frenzied pandemic market.
Inventory Rises – A Rebalancing, Not a Glut
The inventory of homes for sale has expanded significantly in the past year, a fact the WSJ article highlights – but this trend is actually a positive sign of a rebalancing market, not a harbinger of a crash. In Bonita Springs-Estero, active listings in May 2025 were up about 37% year-over-year. This increase in supply is a welcome relief after the record-low inventory of 2021-2022, when buyers had virtually no choices. More homes on the market means more options for buyers and a healthier equilibrium between supply and demand.
It’s important to note that by historical standards, inventory is returning to normal levels. Southwest Florida’s overall listing inventory remains comparable to pre-pandemic times (in fact, active listings across the region have recently declined slightly from over 24,000 to just under 21,000, indicating some tightening as we head into summer). For Bonita Springs and Estero, the slight month-to-month dip in inventory around June 2025 suggests that buyer activity is keeping pace with new listings, preventing any runaway build-up of unsold homes. This dynamic belies the notion of a glut; instead, it signals that the market is finding balance.
Most importantly, months’ supply of inventory – a key barometer of market health – remains in a reasonable range. A “balanced” market typically has around 4 to 6 months of supply, which ensures neither buyers nor sellers have a strong upper hand. During the height of the frenzy in 2021, our area had barely 1 to 2 months of supply (a severe seller’s market). Today, Bonita Springs-Estero’s inventory is closer to 7 months of supply, which represents a slight tilt in favor of buyers but is not an indicator of distress. By comparison, Cape Coral’s supply is about 7.3 months as of June, and Lee County overall is around 7–9 months – all pointing to a transitioning market that is approaching a healthy equilibrium. In fact, Cape Coral experienced a balanced market for much of 2023 (between 3.8 and 5.9-months’ supply) before inventory ticked up further. Now we’re slightly beyond that balanced range, which means buyers have more negotiating power and selection, but it does not mean a surplus of homes that would trigger major price declines. As the Royal Palm Coast Realtor® Association noted, a 7-month supply simply suggests “more options but not distress”. Sellers may no longer receive multiple bids in 24 hours, but well-maintained, well-priced homes are absolutely selling in this environment. This return of choice to buyers is a normal and even welcome development after the extreme seller’s market of recent years.
Southwest Florida Market Comparison: Bonita/Estero vs. Cape Coral
It’s also crucial to recognize the variation within Southwest Florida’s housing market. A sensational label applied to Cape Coral does not reflect the conditions in all communities. Bonita Springs and Estero are distinct submarkets with their own dynamics and generally higher price points. For instance, the median sale price in Bonita Springs-Estero is in the mid-$500,000s, significantly higher than Cape Coral’s median around the mid-$300,000s. Our area attracts many upscale buyers (including luxury and second-home purchasers) and was not as intensely overbuilt during the mid-2000s boom, which adds to its stability. While Cape Coral’s single-family home sales totaled 447 in June (as a larger city), Bonita Springs and Estero saw a more modest volume (e.g. 309 total sales in May across all property types). Yet in both cases, the trend is one of market resilience: homes are selling, inventory is being absorbed, and prices are holding level over the multi-year horizon.
Indeed, looking at Lee County as a whole provides perspective. County-wide, there were about 8,204 homes for sale as of June 2025, up substantially from roughly 2,000 listings in late 2021. Despite that jump in inventory, the median price in Lee County (~$380,000) is actually higher now than it was in October 2021 (~$365,000). This speaks volumes: even with four times as many homes on the market, prices have remained resilient across the county. Demand – fueled by continued population growth and the desirability of Southwest Florida – is still strong enough to absorb the increased supply without triggering a price collapse. Bonita Springs and Estero benefit from this regional trend of sustained demand and value retention. Buyers are still relocating here for the lifestyle and climate, and many locals who sold during the frenzy are now returning to buy with more choices available. That steady influx of buyers and relatively limited new construction in our immediate area have kept home values on solid footing.
Continued Buyer Engagement and Low Distress Signals
Local market indicators also confirm that we are not seeing the kind of distress that would accompany a “worst in America” housing market. Homes are still changing hands at a healthy clip, just with longer marketing times and normal negotiations. The median days on market in Bonita Springs-Estero (about 51 days) is up slightly from last year’s swift pace, but this is still only around 7 weeks on the market for a typical sale. By comparison, in a truly stagnant market, listings might languish for many months. Here, buyers are taking a bit more time to shop – which is expected now that they have more inventory to consider – but they are ultimately purchasing homes that meet their needs. The fact that houses are still selling within 1–2 months on average shows that buyer interest remains robust.
Moreover, sale-to-list price ratios remain strong, reflecting continued buyer engagement and competition for desirable properties. In 2021’s red-hot market, it was common for homes to sell at or above asking price (100%+ of list price). Today, with more inventory, we see sale prices coming in just slightly under asking – roughly 96–97% of the listing price, on average. For context, Cape Coral’s single-family homes are selling at about 97.7% of list even with the recent inventory surge, and our local market is comparable. Many sellers are still getting very close to their asking prices, especially if they price realistically from the start. This metric confirms that buyers are not low-balling en masse or forcing fire-sale prices; they remain willing to pay near-market value. The slight dip from 100% simply indicates that unlike 2021, buyers now have a bit of negotiating room – again, a sign of normalization. Homes that are priced right and in good condition are certainly finding buyers in Bonita Springs and Estero.
Finally, it’s worth highlighting that distressed property activity remains extremely low in our area, contrary to what one might expect in a truly “worst” market. There has been no notable uptick in foreclosures or short sales. According to the Florida Gulf Coast MLS, as of early July there were only 27 homes in the entire MLS listed as foreclosures, with just 76 foreclosure sales in the past 12 months across the region. These numbers are minuscule for a market of our size and are a far cry from the foreclosure crisis days of 2008-2010. The lack of distressed sales reinforces that homeowners are not underwater or defaulting en masse – to the contrary, most have significant equity after the past few years of appreciation. Lenders are not inundated with defaults, and builders are not dramatically oversupplying the market. Simply put, this is not a market in free-fall; it’s a market in transition to a more balanced state. All the core indicators – pricing, inventory levels, pace of sales, and default rates – point to stabilization, not turmoil**.
Conclusion: A Market in Transition, Not in Trouble
The Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors want to assure our community and those watching the market that the sky is not falling in Southwest Florida real estate. Our market is transitioning, not tanking. What we are experiencing is the shift from an extraordinary seller’s market to a healthy, balanced environment where buyers have more choice and sellers must meet the market on price and expectations. This is a natural correction after the frenzied conditions of the pandemic era – not a collapse. Housing in Bonita Springs, Estero, and the greater Lee County region continues to offer long-term value. Our desirable location, coupled with sound fundamentals (such as low unemployment and ongoing population growth in Florida), underpins a resilient real estate market that can weather short-term fluctuations.
As the local Realtor association, BSER remains committed to providing accurate, data-driven insights that reflect actual market conditions. We encourage consumers, investors, and the media to look beyond sensational headlines and consider the full context that the data provides. The recent characterization of Cape Coral’s market lacks that context, and we welcome the opportunity to set the record straight with facts and perspective. For any media or analysts seeking further information, Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors’ leadership is available and eager to discuss the local market in depth. We have formally invited The Wall Street Journal and other outlets to engage with us in a dialogue to provide additional context for their coverage, and we will continue to do so in the interest of accurate reporting. (As of this release, we await a response from the Journal.)
In the meantime, our message to homeowners and buyers is one of confidence. The Southwest Florida housing market is sound. If you are considering buying or selling in Bonita Springs or Estero, now is a time to move forward with rational optimism. Working with a local Realtor® is key – local experts have up-to-the-minute knowledge of neighborhood trends, pricing, and inventory, and can guide you through this normalizing market with facts, not fear. Realtors® help buyers and sellers alike make informed, confident decisions by providing realistic interpretations of current data and opportunities.
Ultimately, Southwest Florida remains a place of enduring real estate value. The post-pandemic market shift has brought us back to sustainable conditions: Buyers have more choices and bargaining power, and sellers who price their homes correctly are still achieving favorable outcomes. Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors will continue to monitor the trends closely and champion the long-term strength of our local housing market. We invite anyone with questions – be it journalists, residents, or prospective buyers – to reach out for a grounded, expert perspective. Our doors are open to educate and inform, ensuring that the public receives a full, contextual understanding of the Bonita Springs and Estero housing landscape.
About Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors (BSER)
Bonita Springs-Estero Realtors, Inc. is the professional association serving over 1,400 Realtors® and affiliate members in the Bonita Springs and Estero area. BSER provides education, resources, and advocacy for real estate professionals and strives to enhance the quality of life in our Southwest Florida communities. 2025 BSER President Adam Ruud and the Board of Directors remain dedicated to promoting ethical standards, professional excellence, and accurate information in the real estate industry. For more information, visit BonitaEsteroRealtors.com or contact our office Support@BERealtors.org
